Myanmar's junta is on the verge of losing control over the restive Rakhine state to an ethnic armed group.

Written by Ikmal fahmi, August 29 2024

Photo: Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters

YANGON: Myanmar's junta is reportedly on the brink of being ousted from a western state bordering Bangladesh, according to a new report, signaling one of its largest military setbacks since the 2021 coup reignited widespread civilian conflict.

The Arakan Army has rapidly gained ground across Rakhine state since November last year and is poised to establish the largest territory controlled by an ethnic armed group since the coup, the International Crisis Group said in a report on Tuesday (Aug 27).

Formed in China's borderlands, the Arakan Army has been responsible for some of the junta’s most significant battlefield defeats over the past year. Their successes have galvanized other ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces aiming to oust the military regime led by coup leader-turned-President Min Aung Hlaing.

"The Arakan Army is in the process of creating a proto-state of over a million people on the Myanmar-Bangladesh border,” the report stated.

Despite facing indiscriminate attacks and an economic blockade from Myanmar’s military, the Arakan Army has continued its advance.

Other reports indicate that the junta has lost control of most of the country’s townships, prompting another extension of emergency rule as the security situation worsens. Additionally, the United Nations Development Programme warned in April that 76% of the population now lives below or dangerously close to the subsistence level.

The Arakan Army has secured strategic victories along Rakhine’s coastline and is now positioned to strike Sittwe, the state capital. Kyaukphyu, an island township hosting key Chinese infrastructure projects, remains a crucial target.

Rakhine is also home to Myanmar’s vulnerable Rohingya population. This month marks seven years since military operations forced around 700,000 Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh—events the US later classified as "genocide and crimes against humanity."

Violence against the Muslim-minority Rohingya continues. Last week, UN human rights chief Volker Turk expressed "grave alarm" over the escalating situation in Rakhine, where hundreds of civilians have reportedly been killed while fleeing the fighting.

The UN Human Rights Office has documented serious human rights violations committed by both the military and the Arakan Army, including extra-judicial killings, some involving beheadings, abductions, and forced recruitment.

However, questions remain about the Arakan Army's ability to manage Rakhine’s economic resources post-junta, said Thomas Kean, Crisis Group’s senior consultant on Myanmar and Bangladesh. While the group lacks visible infrastructure with neighboring countries, China has long planned to develop a deep-sea port, special economic zone, and high-speed railway in Kyaukphyu.

"The rise of the Arakan Army in western Myanmar presents a challenge for China, given Beijing’s economic and strategic interests in the region," Kean noted. "China is focused on ensuring its investments remain secure and unharmed." - Bloomberg

Reference:

The Star. (2024, August 27). Myanmar junta set to lose restive Rakhine state to ethnic armed group. https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2024/08/27/myanmar-junta-set-to-lose-restive-rakhine-state-to-ethnic-armed-group