The chances of a ceasefire in Gaza increase as a delegation from Hamas arrives in Cairo.

• Egyptian and US mediators indicate signs of compromise, yet numerous analysts maintain a pessimistic outlook.

Smoke billows on the horizon during a residential building hit in an Israeli air strike in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, on Thursday, May 2, 2024. Photo by Ismael Mohamad/UPI

Hopes for a Gaza ceasefire heightened on Saturday with the arrival of a Hamas delegation in Cairo for ongoing indirect talks. This move is believed to be in response to a new proposal, reportedly agreed upon by Israel, suggesting a 40-day cessation of hostilities in exchange for the release of hostages for Palestinian prisoners.

Recent reports from Egyptian and US mediators suggest signs of compromise. Egyptian state news channel Al-Qahera announced on Saturday that consensus had been achieved in the indirect negotiations on many contentious issues, though no specifics were provided.

Despite these developments, numerous analysts maintain a pessimistic stance due to the five months of intermittent negotiations that have frequently collapsed. The challenge lies in reconciling Hamas's desire for a long-term ceasefire to claim victory with Benjamin Netanyahu's apparent determination to remove Hamas from power, neutralize or capture its leadership, and dismantle its military capabilities.

An Israeli official, speaking anonymously on Saturday to discuss ongoing negotiations, downplayed the likelihood of a complete end to the war. The official emphasized Israel's commitment to an offensive on Rafah, Gaza's southernmost city, and stated that Israel would not agree under any circumstances to end the war as part of a hostage-release agreement.

According to Egyptian sources cited by the Wall Street Journal, Israel plans to give the truce talks one more week before initiating its long-anticipated offensive.

The US has been applying pressure on Hamas to accept the latest proposals, which are widely viewed as a final opportunity to prevent further escalation of conflict. Any Israeli offensive in Rafah is expected to result in numerous civilian casualties and worsen the already dire humanitarian situation in Gaza.

"The obstacle to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza lies solely with Hamas," remarked US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday.

Blinken further expressed Washington's opposition to a potential offensive in Rafah, emphasizing Israel's failure to present a credible plan to safeguard the 1.2 million or more displaced civilians from elsewhere in Gaza who have sought refuge in sprawling tented refugee camps and UN shelters there.

"Without such a plan, endorsing a significant military operation in Rafah is untenable due to the anticipated damage," he asserted.

Humanitarian organizations and the United Nations have consistently urged Israel to abandon plans for an attack on Rafah.

The Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, cautioned on Friday that a full-scale military assault on Rafah "could result in a massacre and further weaken an already fragile health system."

Israeli officials argue that a ground offensive in Rafah is imperative to achieve Israel's stated objectives for the war, as thousands of Hamas fighters and the organization's leaders are believed to be based there.

Hamas had seized approximately 250 hostages during a surprise attack into southern Israel in October of the previous year, which had sparked the conflict. Around half of them are still held in Gaza, with many believed to be in or under Rafah.

The October Hamas attack resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths, primarily civilians. Subsequently, over 34,600 people, mostly women and children, have perished in Gaza due to the Israeli military offensive. Israel accuses Hamas of using civilians as human shields, a claim the organization denies.

Israeli airstrikes early on Saturday in Gaza claimed at least six lives. Three bodies were recovered from the rubble of a building in Rafah and transported to Yousef al-Najjar hospital. Another strike in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza also resulted in three fatalities, according to hospital officials.

Within the last 24 hours, Gaza's health ministry reported that the bodies of 32 people killed by Israeli airstrikes had been brought to local hospitals on Saturday. The ministry does not differentiate between combatants and civilians in its casualty figures.

Hamas, in power in the Gaza Strip since 2007, has stated it is reviewing the latest ceasefire proposal with a "positive attitude."

However, the group is internally divided, and statements from its political wing, primarily based in Istanbul, often do not align with the views of Yahya Sinwar, the orchestrator of the October attacks and the most senior Hamas leader in Gaza.

Observers note the significance of the current Hamas delegation in Cairo being led by Khalil al-Hayya, deputy head of the group's political arm in Gaza, rather than a higher-ranking figure who might lack credibility with Sinwar, who holds ultimate authority over any agreement.

The Israeli government is also deeply divided. While senior members of its war cabinet are eager to secure a ceasefire and release surviving prisoners, far-right ministers have threatened to collapse Netanyahu's ruling coalition if the conflict does not intensify.

The United States, along with Egypt and Qatar, has been working to finalize a ceasefire agreement in the nearly seven-month-long conflict.

During the last ceasefire, over one week in November, 80 Israeli hostages were exchanged for 240 Palestinian prisoners. It is estimated that up to a third of those still in Hamas captivity may now be deceased.

Israel's blockade has pushed many of Gaza's 2.4 million inhabitants to the brink of famine, and pressure from the US has prompted Israel to facilitate more aid deliveries to Gaza, including through the reopened Erez crossing, which leads directly into the hardest-hit northern region.

Last week, Israeli settlers obstructed a convoy using a new route from Jordan before it entered Gaza. Once inside the territory, the convoy was commandeered by Hamas militants before UN officials reclaimed it.

According to the UN and residents in Rafah interviewed by the Guardian, there has been a slight improvement in food availability, with prices for some staples dropping to near pre-war levels in the southern areas where aid is most prevalent.

The US-based charity World Central Kitchen resumed operations this week after suspending them in the aftermath of Israeli drone strikes that killed seven of its staff while unloading aid in Gaza on April 1st.

World Central Kitchen was involved in an initiative earlier this year to establish a new maritime aid corridor to Gaza from Cyprus to compensate for dwindling land deliveries from Israel.

The project faced another setback on Friday when the US military announced that high winds had forced troops working to assemble a temporary aid pier off the Gaza coast to relocate to the Israeli port of Ashdod.

Despite the improvements, the Chief of the UN's food program warned of a "full-blown famine" in northern Gaza, reiterating calls for a ceasefire. "There is famine, full-blown famine, in the north, and it's spreading south," said Cindy McCain, executive director of the World Food Programme.

Source : The Guardian